Book
Divided Armies: Inequality and Battlefield Performance in Modern War. International History and Politics Series. Princeton University Press, 2020. 508pp.
Link at Princeton University Press.
Link at Amazon.
Project Mars Versions 1.0 and 1.1 Data.
Winner, 2021 APSA Conflict Processes Section Best Book Award for “the book making the most outstanding contributions to the study of any and all forms of political conflict, either within or between nation-states, published in the past two calendar years.”
Winner, 2021 Peter Katzenstein Book Prize for “outstanding first book in International Relations, Comparative Politics, or Political Economy.”
Winner, 2020 Joseph S. Lepgold Prize for “the best book in international relations, broadly conceived, each year.”
Winner, 2020 Edgar S. Furniss Book Award “given annually to an author whose first book makes an exceptional contribution to the study of national and international security.”
Foreign Affairs, Best of Books 2020
War on the Rocks, 2019 Holiday Reading List
Modern War Institute, 2022 Reading List
Reviews: Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Foreign Affairs, International Affairs, Journal of Advanced Military Studies, Joint Force Quarterly, Journal of Peace Research, Lawfare, Political Science Quarterly, Proceedings of the US Naval Institute, H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable XII-11, APSA 2020 Author-Meets-Critics Roundtable
Public Writings: Foreign Affairs, Ambassador’s Brief, Washington Post
Podcasts & Presentations: The Sosh Podcast@WestPoint, New Book Network (14 Dec 2021), Joseph Lepgold Book Prize Lecture (18 Nov 2021), Joint Special Operations University (JSOU) Book Talk (4 Feb 2021).
Peer Reviewed Articles
“Causal Inference with Spatio-Temporal Data: Estimating the Effects of Airstrikes on Insurgent Violence in Iraq.” With Georgia Papadogeorgou, Kosuke Imai, and Fan Li. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), forthcoming. pdf.
“Can Civilian Attitudes Predict Insurgent Violence? Ideology and Insurgent Tactical Choice in Civil War.” Journal of Peace Research, 54:1 (January 2017), 47–63. With Kentaro Hirose and Kosuke Imai. Winner of the 2018 Nils Petter Gleditsch JPR Article of the Year Award. pdf. appendix.
“Coethnic Bias and Wartime Informing.” Journal of Politics, 77:3 (July 2015), 833-48. With Yuki Shiraito and Kosuke Imai. pdf.
“From Cell Phones to Conflict? Reflections on the Emerging ICT-Political Conflict Research Agenda.” Journal of Peace Research 52:3 (May 2015), 401-413. With Allan Dafoe. pdf.
“Comparing and Combining List and Endorsement Experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan.” American Journal of Political Science, 58:4 (October 2014), 1043-1063. With Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai. pdf
“Explaining Support for Combatants in Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan.” American Political Science Review, 107:4 (November 2013). With Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai. pdf. Winner of the 2013 Pi Sigma Alpha Award for Best Paper Presented at the 2012 Midwest Political Science Association.
“Are Co-Ethnics More Effective Counter-Insurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War.” American Political Science Review, 104:1 (February 2010), 1-20. pdf. data. Winner of the 2009 Kellogg/Notre Dame Award for Best Paper in Comparative Politics Presented at the 2008 Midwest Political Science Association.
“Do Democracies Make Inferior Counterinsurgents? Reassessing Democracy’s Impact on War Outcomes and Duration.” International Organization, 64:1 (Winter 2010), 167-92. pdf. data.
“Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53:3 (June 2009), 331-362. pdf. data.
“Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars.” International Organization, 63:1 (Winter 2009), 67-106. pdf. data. With Lt. Colonel Isaiah Wilson, III.
“Pocket Protests: Rhetorical Coercion and the Micropolitics of Collective Action in Semiauthoritarian Regimes.” World Politics 58:3 (2006), 378-412. pdf.
Invited Contributions
“Mad CoW: A Reply to Gibler and Miller.” International Studies Quarterly, 2022 pdf. SI. Full reply.
“How Inequality Hobbles Military Power.” Foreign Affairs 22 July 2022. url
“A Reply to My Critics,” H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable 12-11, 14 May 2021. url
“Drones are Destabilizing World Politics.” Foreign Affairs 16 Dec 2020. url.
“Forced to Fight: Coercion, Blocking Detachments, and Trade-Offs in Military Effectiveness.” In The Sword’s Other Edge: Trade-Offs in the Pursuit of Military Effectiveness, ed. Dan Reiter (Cambridge University Press, 2017), pp.88-125. pdf.
“Process Tracing, Causal Inference, and Civil War.” In Process Tracing in the Social Sciences: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool, eds. Andrew Bennett and Jeffrey Checkel (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Strategies for Social Inquiry Series, 2015), pp.186-207. pdf.
“Afghanistan’s Lost Decade.” Foreign Affairs 15 December 2011. url.
Dissertation
“Paths of Ruin: Why Revisionist States Arise and Die in World Politics.” pdf.
- APSA Helen Dwight Reid Prize for Best Dissertation in International Relations, Law, and Politics (2007)
- Esman Prize for Best Dissertation, Government Department, Cornell (2006).