Under Review

“Bombing to Lose? Airpower and the Dynamics of Violence in Counterinsurgency Wars.” pdf. appendix. airstrike vizR&R. 

“Forced to Fight: Coercion, Blocking Detachments, and Tradeoffs in Military Effectiveness.” pdf. R&R

Working Papers

“Why Armies Break: Explaining Mass Desertion in Conventional War.” (Lead for Paths of Ruin). pdf

“Introducing Project Mars: A New Dataset of Combatant Attributes, Battlefield Performance, and War Outcomes, 1800-2011.”

“Civilian Casualties and the Conditional Effects of Humanitarian Aid in Wartime.”

“The Dynamics of Civilian Attitudes and Victimization in Civil Wars.” With Kentaro Hirose, Kosuke Imai, and Yuki Shiraito. 

“Buying Hearts and Minds: Cash Transfers and Combatant Support Among At-Risk Populations in Afghanistan.” With Kosuke Imai, Prakhar Sharma, and Yang-Yang Zhou.

“The Civilian in Wartime.”

“Are Democracies Superior War-Fighters? New Data and Evidence.”

“Wartime POW Abuse and the Rise of Postwar Insurgencies.” With Geoff Wallace. pdf.

Book Manuscripts

Book Project #1: Paths of Ruin: Explaining Battlefield Performance in Conventional War (working title). This book and associated articles examines how collective identities determine military effectiveness in conventional wars from 1800-2011. It combines a new dataset of combatants, outcomes, and practices (including soldier desertion, defection, and the use of violence against one’s own soldiers) from over 260 wars with paired historical comparisons identified via matching. Book conference, 18-19 September 2015.

Book Project #2: Death from Above: The Effects of Airpower in Small Wars. This book and associated articles examines the effects of airpower (both airstrikes and non-lethal shows of force) on patterns of insurgent behavior in so-called “small” wars. It draws on newly declassified archival materials from UK operations in the Northwest Frontier Province, declassified USAF airstrike data and insurgent attack data from Iraq (2003-09) and Afghanistan (2006-11), and survey experiments among victimized populations in Afghanistan.